A look ahead at free agency

With the World Series coming to a close, free agency is set to begin. For the Blue Jays, some key decisions must be made to build on an incredible 2025.

The biggest pending free agent from Toronto is infielder Bo Bichette, who is set for a big payday after finishing out his rookie contract with the Blue Jays. Projections for Bichette are fairly consistent, with a contract of around eight years and over $200 million being a near certainty. With Rogers being reported to have earned upwards of $150 million from the Blue Jays' run to the World Series, money should not be an issue. However, his fit on the club is a different question. Despite being a lackluster defensive shortstop at times, Bichette showed his defensive flexibility during the World Series, playing second base for the first time in his MLB career while nursing an injury. While the Blue Jays have infielders such as Ernie Clement and Andres Gimenez who could fill a possible void left by Bichette's departure, they cannot be expected to play to the level they did in the postseason.

As one of the top free agent hitters on the market, Bo Bichette is a player to watch this winter.

If it were up to me, I would make an immense effort to bring Bichette back to Toronto this winter. You can hope he would take a slight hometown discount, especially after the heartbreaking World Series defeat, but the Blue Jays have to be prepared to pay him like the superstar that he is.

The other key players whose contracts in Toronto have expired are starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer. Despite his age, Bassitt remains a reliable arm, something teams are always in need of, especially when making a postseason push. Bringining Bassitt back on a short-term contract would be ideal, but it depends what the market for him looks like. Scherzer's one year, $15 million contract for 2025 was undoubtedly an overpay. Scherzer struggled with injury throughout the regular season, and despite some clutch pitching performances in the ALCS and World Series, he is not someone I would trust to be a quality rotation piece heading into his age 42 season. Shane Bieber is an interesting case, as he has a pending player option worth $16 million. I would guess that he declines the option and elects free agency, but that is not a surefire prediction after his recent return from Tommy John surgery. While Bieber's upside is still incredibly high and starting pitchers of his quality are difficult to come by, giving him a long-term contract would carry a significant risk.

As with any team looking to contend, the Blue Jays need some front-line starters to go along with Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage in the rotation, and they can look elsewhere in free agency for quality arms. Cubs' LHP Shota Imanaga opted-out of his deal with the club, and pitchers with high upsides including Zac Gallen, Michael King, and Dylan Cease are free agents this winter. I expect the market for starting pitchers to be competitive, but the Blue Jays certainly need to make some moves in order to stay competitive.

By far the club's biggest need this offseason are additions to the bullpen. Seranthony Dominguez is a free agent, and as shown throughout the season, the Blue Jays do not have as many trustworthy relievers as they would like. Keeping Jeff Hoffman in the closer role is risky, but almost neccessary with his hefty $11 million contract. With free agent relievers being limited, looking for arms to acquire via trade would be the safest option.

The Jays need a strong offseason to have any hope of returning to the World Series. With the team's general willingness to spend on free agents, I predict them to do so. While still getting over the loss, I am looking forward to seeing the moves the Blue Jays make this winter and will be sure to give my thoughts as the offseason progresses.

UPDATE: Literally as I was writing this post, Shane Bieber has exercised his player option and will remain a Blue Jay for the 2026 season. I am excited to see Bieber back in Toronto and now feeling slighlty more confident headed into the offseason. Welcome back to Toronto, Shane!